Buju’s Bad Bets - UFC 231
So it’s been awhile since I’ve done one of these, and the last time I did was when Darren Elkins had the insane comeback win over Mirksad Bektic... and I did not have Elkins. As a preface, I stink at gambling. I’m really bad at it. I do dumb parlays, bet on dudes I’ve never heard of and I’ve bet on people thinking they’re someone else (looking at you Charles Oliveira.) So before you think this is advice, you need to realize that trailing these picks is basically like piling up your money and lighting it on fire.
(Just a disclaimer, this is being written on Thursday afternoon so some of these lines may have moved by the time you’re reading this)
You can check out our straight-up picks here
This week I’m going to go into some detail about the 3 biggest fights, and then a quick rundown of the other bets I like.
There’s actually a lot of value in quite a few of these fights, and an opportunity to walk away with some change if you end up on the right side of them. There’s 8 fights with the favorite at -190 or less, which seems like it’s probably more than average? You tell me.
The main event is a pick’em and I’m so torn on who to pick in this one. The only thing I can really tell is that if you have any reasoning for choosing one over the other, put some money on it. You don’t get pick’em main events very often, so take advantage of it while you can. As far as props go though, Ortega by submission at +200 holds some value.
Anyways, the one that jumps out the most to me is Joanna Jedrzejczyk at +290. While she should definitely be the underdog, she’s still a former DOMINANT champion who will more than likely have a significant speed advantage in her matchup with Shevchenko. Could I be bias? Sure, Joanna is my favorite female fighter and probably in my top 3 overall all-time, but i do still think she has a strong chance to win you some decent money in this one. I also like this one to go the distance, but with “Over 4.5 round” being -225, there isn’t a lot of value in it.
I love love love Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira at +110 against Gunnar Nelson. As I said while we made our picks on the podcast this week, Nelson’s resume is not all that impressive. It’s been 13 fights since Oliveria has lost via submission and Nelson hasn’t won a fight with anything BUT a submission since 2013, and only has 1 non-submission win since 2008. He’s not going to knock Cowboy out, and I don’t see him winning a decision. If Oliveira can handle Nelson’s grappling, which I think he can, he will win this fight. Fuck it, LOCK OF THE WEEK! I don’t hate Oliveira by KO/TKO at +215 either.
The complete list of bets i’m interested in
Max Holloway -110
Brian Ortega by sub +200 (because of the value)
Alex Oliveira +110
Oliveira by KO/TKO +215
Eryk Anders EVEN
Olivier Aubin Mercier -120
Gadelha & Santos parlay